When the Small Sample Is the Only Sample: Pressure in October Baseball

Introduction

There are two games within every baseball season; the marathon of the 162 game regular season, and the playoffs. In the former, we as observers strive not to jump to conclusions. Slow starts are met with calls for patience, with reminders that it's a long season and that there's still time. Even the best teams go through stretches over the course of a season where struggles spread through the clubhouse like a contagion. But water tends to find its level, and the better teams tend to rise to the top by season’s end.

The playoffs on the other hand are not just a time of small sample sizes. They are a time where the small sample is the only sample. There is no second half to balance out a slow first half. There is no All-Star break for a player to reset. There is only a string of moments, one after the other, where a team's performance in that moment is the difference between their season continuing and their season being over.

Being the best team over 162 games requires being able to weather the ups and downs of a long season. It often requires depth; the ability to bring players in from the minor leagues to make meaningful contributions when starters are injured. The playoffs on the other hand require something different. In the playoffs, what's been accomplished over 162 games no longer matters. The playoffs are about how well players can perform in the biggest moments, on the biggest stage, when the pressure is on.

It’s long been acknowledged that good fortune plays a large role in a team winning the World Series, and there are countless examples of teams barely making it into the playoff field and sprinting their way to a world championship. But a significant variable that is often overlooked is the pressure that each team is under, and how effectively they are able to either manage this pressure to further enhance their performance, or succumb to it.

What We’re Talking About When We Talk About Pressure

Pressure — at least in the sense that we talk about it in sport — is always psychological. It does not exist as a physical object. You can't pick it up. You can't put it down. Social Psychologist Dr. Roy Baumeister defined pressure as, “Any factor or combination of factors that increases the importance of performing well on a particular occasion” (Baumeister, 1984). Pressure is not a reflection of the difficulty of the task at hand, but rather our own assessment of what’s at stake. In this framing, pressure is often viewed as a negative; an unwanted weight that is added to a situation, where "overcoming" it is the goal.

Falling victim to the effects of pressure is what we tend to refer to as "choking". Two categories of theories – skillfocus theories and distraction theories – offer competing explanations for what happens to an athlete when they "choke". According to skillfocus theories, an anxious athletes’ attention is directed at how to execute the sport-specific movements, causing them to interrupt execution of already automatized movements in expert performers (the expression "paralysis by analysis" comes to mind). Distraction theories consider the other side of the coin; rather than focusing too much on the physical movements, anxious athletes are distractible and take their focus off of relevant stimuli.

A classic example to illustrate choking takes us off the baseball diamond and onto a putting green. We’ll head to the 2025 Masters, one of the most iconic events in professional sports. This past May, Rory McIlroy faced a 5-foot par putt to to win the Masters by a stroke. As if a Masters victory wasn’t enough on the line, the Masters was the final major victory McIlroy needed to secure a career grand slam, a feat accomplished by just five golfers in the modern era up to that point. So without further ado, here is McIlroy on 18 at the Masters, facing down his 5-foot putt:

Now the ending for McIlroy is a happy one here; he does end up beating Justin Rose in a playoff, becoming the 6th golfer in the modern era to complete the career grand slam (a testament to his mental fortitude). But let’s just imagine what this moment must have felt like. A 5-foot putt, to a golfer of McIlroy’s stature, is nearly automatic. But this was no ordinary 5-foot putt. In the arc of his professional career, this was one of a handful of moments that would come to define McIlroy as a golfer. The pressure, the sense of importance of performing well, must have been through the roof. Despite being able to make putts just like this one in his sleep, McIlroy missed the putt when it mattered most.

But pressure is not always a negative thing. Pressure is not just about avoiding a dramatic drop in performance due to the stress of the moment. It can also be about harnessing the positive aspects of pressure into clutch performance; performing at the absolute limits of an individual's peak capability.

Turning Pressure into Clutch Performance

There's a paradox every competitive athlete faces when it comes to pressure. By virtue of striving for excellence, competitive athletes are actually seeking out the opportunity — and I use that word intentionally — to experience pressure-filled moments as much as possible. Because if pressure shows up in the situations that matter the most, where there's the most at stake, aren't those the exact situations that every athlete wants to find themselves in? Playing in games that matter, being the one who delivers for their team with the game or the season on the line? How can you try to prevent yourself from feeling pressure while actively seeking out the situations where pressure arises?

The secret, according to the research, is to think about pressure differently. Studies have shown that athletes who frame high-pressure situations as challenges rather than threats are more likely to maintain or even elevate their performance (Otten, 2009; Beilock & Gray, 2007).

"If you want to run away from the word ‘pressure,’ then you’re never going to be in a significant moment in your life.’’ - Joe Maddon

During the Joe Maddon years, the Cubs used a key psychological skill — reframing — to teach players to embrace pressure rather than run from it. They taught that pressure is something you get to experience, not something to avoid. In 2015 Maddon said,

“I love the fact that the games are meaningful… I love the fact that people are going to use the word ‘pressure’ a lot… and ‘scrutiny.’ I think it’s great. It’s good for our guys. We anticipated being there this year and years to come. You’ve got to get used to it at some point… And it’s a good thing. If you want to run away from the word ‘pressure,’ then you’re never going to be in a significant moment in your life.’’

Pressure comes from feeling that there is something at stake. Feeling that there is something at stake means that we care. And as I tell my clients, it’s good to have things that we care about. Being able to perform under pressure, being “clutch”, is not about not feeling pressure in these pivotal moments. It’s actually about embracing those feelings, to learn not to fear them, in order to keep them from getting in the way. But Maddon points to another possibility as well; the moments in life that are the most meaningful are the ones where we transcend pressure. A life without pressure, Maddon suggests, is a life without significance.

In Season 4 of The Bear, Luca, a top Copenhagen chef who comes to Chicago to help his friends, captures the essence of this when he helps another chef, Tina, who is struggling to prepare pasta dishes within three minutes. Here is the clip:

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If you're unable to watch the video, this is the essence of it: Tina asks a question that any human being who has felt the discomfort of pressure has asked:

"How do you get rid of it?"

Luca's answer traces his own process of learning to harness pressure as a force for peak performance:

Luca: "I think you get to a point where you don’t want to. Like at first the pressure sucks right? The pressure makes you feel shitty at what you do, and actually that’s just the pressure getting in the way. You learn to live with it. And then the next thing you know you thrive on it. And then before you know it, you can’t fucking wait to get rocked. Like you want that pressure, you need that pressure to be able to perform. So, then, the challenge actually becomes, can you live without that pressure?"

Conclusion

The MLB playoffs represent an ideal container to watch the manifestations of pressure come to life. It's a time where records are wiped clean and teams play as though there won't be a tomorrow because, well, there won’t be unless they win. Fans experience a case of collective amnesia when the playoffs begin, only caring about what their team does in the playoffs and discounting the full season that was played to get there. It's a time, as I said earlier, when the small sample size becomes the only sample size. There are no second chances. Who will be overwhelmed by the pressure, and who will harness it? We will find out soon enough, and you can bet it will be the deciding factor in which team raises the World Series trophy in just a few weeks.